National home prices increased 3.7% year over year in November 2019 and are forecast to increase 5.3% from November 2019 to November 2020, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) Report. The November 2019 HPI gain was down from the November 2018 gain of 4.8% and was up a bit from the September 2019 gain of 3.3%. Annual home price gains fell below 4% in February 2019.
The HPI has increased on a year-over-year basis every month for more than seven years (since February 2012) and has gained 62.9% since hitting bottom in March 2011. As of November 2019, the overall HPI was 9.6% higher than its pre-crisis peak in April 2006. Adjusted for inflation, U.S. home prices increased 2.3% year over year in November 2019 and were 11.4% below their peak. Figure 1 shows the cumulative price movement since the inception of price declines for both the nominal HPI and the inflation-adjusted HPI, as well as the time in years since the first decrease in the indices.
CoreLogic analyzes four individual home-price tiers that are calculated relative to the median national home sale price. The lowest price tier increased 5.6% year over year in November 2019, compared with 4.8% for the low-to-middle-price tier, 4.2% for the middle-to moderate-price tier, and 3.4% for the high-price tier. Cumulative price gains since the 2011 trough were strongest for lower-priced homes, with the lowest price tier gaining 97.3%, the low- to middle-price tier gaining 77.5%, the middle-to-moderate-price tier gaining 65.8% and the high-price tier gaining 49.3%. Figure 2 shows the change from a year ago and from the 2011 trough for each HPI price tier.
Figure 3 shows the year-over-year HPI growth in November 2019 for the 5 highest-and lowest-appreciating states. Idaho led the states in appreciation as it has for just over a year, with annual appreciation of 10.2% this November, far above any of the other leading states. At the low end, Connecticut home prices fell by 0.1% from November 2018. Prices in 41 states (including the District of Columbia) have risen above their nominal pre-crisis peaks. Connecticut home prices in November 2019 were the farthest below their all-time HPI high, still 17.1% below the July 2006 peak. While annual price increases slowed in 39 states compared with a year earlier, the cooling was most pronounced in Nevada. Prices in Nevada increased by 3.2% year over year in November 2019, a 7.8 percentage point slowdown from the 11% annual increase in November 2018.