Housing Market Forecast 2020 to 2024
All the talk of a housing market crash or recession seems outlandish right now. Employment is super and the stock market is booming. And, housing sales and prices rose again in September according to NAR, although they declined a little from August.
In October 2019, home sales rose 1.9% from September to an annual rate of 5.46 million homes, up from Septembers total sales of 5.18 million sales, up 4.6% from one year ago. First time buyers were responsible for 31% of sales, down 2% from last month.
That’s pushed prices up a 5.9% YoY according to NAR’s September 2020 report. That makes it 91 straight months for advances (YoY). The median house price rose to $272,100 and average condo price to $248,600 up 4.5% from a year ago.
New Home Sales US
The bad news comes from HUD which reports construction starts were down 9.4% from August, and housing completions fell 9.7 % from August. Single housing starts fell 8.6% from August. This might be why some experts are forecasting higher prices for 2020 and for the next 5 years.
They’re starting to believe in the strength and persistence of the US economy, yet see that construction will never keep up to demand.
NAR’s Lawrence Yun, reiterated how low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are encouraging home sales. New housing construction starts rose in October too, the highest levels since 2007.
Residential starts grew 3.8% to 1.31 million (annualized basis). Single-family home starts rose 2% to 936,000 in October.
The forecast for new construction starts is at a 1.46 million unit pace. Since family starts rose 2% in October, the fastest pace since 2007. Multifamily starts grew 8.6% while permits for future units grew by a hefty 8.2%.
With tax breaks ending for high end homes, sales of luxury homes should moderate further. Million dollar home sales fell 10.7% YoY. NAR says the hottest cities were Columbus, Ohio; Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.; Midland, Texas; and Sacramento and Stockton-Lodi, California.
2020 Housing Factors Positive
The Job market forecast is excellent with unemployment falling to a persistent 3.6%. And mortgage rates are forecast to fall. S&P CoreLogic predicts home prices will rise 5% in the next 9 months. The hottest cities now are Midland, Texas; Chico, California; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Spokane Washington; and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California. Recession fears are causing some to think now is the time to sell.
The Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa Sarasota, San Francisco, San Diego, New York, Boston, Seattle, Houston, Miami and Chicago housing markets are ready to heat up in 2020.
Will the big markets in Florida and California bloom or will the smaller cities continue to draw workers, construction and home purchases? At this point, both look possible. More is better when it comes to housing, so a transition of workers and immigrants to the heartland could have more beneficial effects than many might expect.
This new update and projections for the 2020 to 2024 5 year forecast period ahead for the US housing market offers key facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from top sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.
Although worries of a housing crash persist, a housing hungry Millennial middle class, and powerful economic performance will any outweigh housing crash indicators. As you’ll see in the charts, videos and opinions below this market is an interesting phase.
This United States Housing Report is the most widely read and thorough update/prediction for 2019/2020, and other housing and economic data to 2026. Please bookmark for coming fresh updates!
Looking for specific sales stats and predictions for major cities: Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta, Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Diego, Miami, Boston, Bay Area, Tampa Sarasota, Denver, and Houston. See forecasts for California housing, and Florida housing markets.
Mortgage Rate Forecast
It’s true, mortgage rates are forecast to fall and there’s some good deals for home loans and refinance loans. According to the latest Freddie Mac report, the average rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 4.64%.
Check out more on the mortgage rate forecast for US lending institutions and firms including Lendingtree, USBank, Bank of America, Quickenloans, Zillow Home Loans, HSBC, WellsFargo, Loandepot, Chase Bank, and more.
Why Will Rates Fall, and When Will They Rise Again?
Should you buy or refinance now? The forecast is for lower mortgage rate quotes. We may get back to rates as low ast 3.6%. Lower income buyers would be struggling to buy at current prices and as affordable homes hit the market, they can finally buy.
The democrats are promising to dry up all stimulus money and block President Trump any way they can. This conflict is critical to discouraging housing demand and threaten an economic recession.
Despite poor sales across the nation, particularly in the California housing, Attom Data reports homes are becoming even less affordable (prices outpace wages). Employment and wages are better in California, yet prices are still out of reach for most.
Will Home Prices Fall or Rise?
The Forecast: S&P CoreLogic predicts home prices will rise 5% in the next 7 months. And average monthly mortgage payments could rise from $912 last fall to $994 this September 2019.
In fact, Zillow reports the average price of US resale homes in October at $222,000. Zillow forecasts continued upward pressure on sales prices, rising $12,000 (6.4%) more by late 2019. It seems it would take a major economic shock or failure to slow the house price trend and crash the housing markets.